One Loses And the Other Gains

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 17-01-2012

It is shocking to note but Plimus just kicked a lot of Forex EA product out of it’s portfolio and they seem to be restricting all forms of forex product. Now clickbank still supports forex product but not forex EA, or forex robots or forex software.

Why?

One of the suspected reason is the rate of refund is just too high. Apparently, 25% rate of refund is the maximum. Anything more than 25% refund rate means your product is $hit. And probably the rate of refund for all forex product with Plimus breached the 25% rate.

Well, they say that Plimus is actually just doing some spring cleaning and clearing out all those lousy forex business model or rather lousy forex product. Fair enough. They have every right to do so… Who wants a product that has a very high rate of refund anyway?

However, a lot of vendors are complaining that they were kick out with out much warning and time to prepare. Some affiliates were also complaining that because they are selling EA, they also got their account suspended.

Yeah… that’s not cool. Even if you want to massive spring cleaning, you do it PROPERLY and PROFESSIONALLY.

Anyway… and like a flock of birds migrating. It seems that all forex ea vendors are moving their payment platform from Plimus to RegNow.

Did a quick search… and voila!!

Most of them have started to move… I suspect there will be more soon.

As they say ‘One man’s losses is another man’s gain.’

There are two ways of looking at this. One, Plimus losses a lot of forex business. RegNow will see an increase in forex business. Two, Plimus have gotten rid of refund rates headache… and RegNow has just began.

One things for sure… Plimus’s credibility has kind of drop heavily overnight and probably they will take a long while to be a competitive Online Selling Platform Provider. Maybe for forex product only…

Don’t You Dare Spread those Legs!

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 17-01-2012

It’s interesting to note that myfxbook.com keeps improving their services… over and over and over again.

Much like the I can do it Chuggington Town trains… it keeps moving and moving and moving…

If you want to check brokers spread at any time, check this out http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-broker-spreads

If you are a scalper and want to check and compare brokers spread during those nice Asian legs… I mean Asian trading hours. What better place to check everything on one page.

So… all you sissy brokers out there… Don’t you dare spread your legs too wide. We are watching.

 

Hyper!! Hyper!! Hyper!!

Filed Under (EA System) by Casey on 10-01-2012

This is the first thing that came into my mind when it comes to this EA.

I was born to this Street Fighter era and like any classic comics, this was one of my love during my schooling days.

We would be running around in the school corridor going “Holuken!”  “Holuken!” “Holuken!” (with both hands extended stances)  pretending to blow the discipline teacher off his feet. Yes, in our schooling system, we actually have a teacher dedicated to disciplining us boys from turning into monkeys. How that system failed miserably…

Anyway, coming back to forex. The developer of Hyper EA contacted me last year asking me if I would feature his EA on my site. I… at that time as you all might know… was out of luck and wasn’t really motivated to do anything about it.

I mean… this guys was going to forward a copy of his EA to me. Free! Even with that incentive, I was not motivated. Geess… that was how out of luck I was.

It took me about a few months to get my act together and subsequent requested if his offer was still valid. And surprisingly he said yes. He added that my timing was just great because he only started his site up and running. I mean his new site. He previously had a site offering Hyper 2.0 and a few other EA.

And like a small buy with a new toy, I took a swing at backtesting this sucker…

Phew wah!!! Hyper on EURCAD 2007 – 2011 – 90% modeling quality

Somehow there were only history for EURCAD from 2007. However… it is this kind of graph that encourages me to take to the next step of backtesting which was of course 99% modeling quality… And so I ‘Hyper’ my way thru all the necessary backtesting…

Hyper!! Hyper!! Hyper!! Hyper!!

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2009 – 99% – 3 pip spread

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2009 – 99% – 4 pip spread

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2009 – 99% – 7 pip spread

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2010 – 99% – 3 pip spread

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2010 – 99% – 4 pip spread

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2010 – 99% – 7 pip spread

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2011 – 99% – 3 pip spread

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2011 – 99% – 4 pip spread

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2011 – 99% – 7 pip spread

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Looking at the curves, you can imagine how excited I was. Even though the curve seems to deteriorates with the widening of the spread. It was still recover nicely.

Now the reason I put it into 3 different spread setting was because the developer encouraged me to put his EA on an ECN account where spread could vary. So I had to test it to the extreme.

With the kind of backtests results above, the only next step to take is to put this on my live account… Of course the developers own live account also played a part to that decision.

Now… there are two broker which the developer says it shows sign of good result. It was either Pepperstone or FinFX. While his live account was with FinFX, I choose Pepperstone (RAZOR account) which was ECN platform. IE i pay commission on every trade I make.

This is pretty new to me actually. ECN and commission payment. Well it’s something different and probably add to my trading experiences.

On top of that, Pepperstone allows a broker to broker fund transfer from Alpari. (Well… at least I could dip into the funds from my Alpari account which is practically sitting there waiting to be pipped)

After some preparation of setting up and funding my account before the new year… I finally put it live just after the new year. While the developer mentioned that they have stopped trading from the 15 Dec 2011 till the 9 Jan 2012, I took the dive and started the EA on the 3 Jan 2012.

So here it goes… Let’s see if I can blast some pips off with this EA.

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Here is my Pepperstone account

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And below is the developers account (FinFX)


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Hyper EA cost CHF199 or you can get it free if you register a broker under their IB program. So… you get to choose. On top of that they offer PAMM account (Managed account services) I think it does say something about the developer of this EA.

Son of Odin! Bring Forth thy Thunder!

Filed Under (EA System) by Casey on 06-01-2012

And smite thou mighty hammer on thy pips…

Of course I am referring to Forex Thor

However, Forex Thor is not the Son of Odin but rather the Son of Shark EA.

I am baffled by creativeness of this EA developers. I mean, this developer has actually release Shark EA, Sigma EA, ProFX and FX Pulse. And these names are kind of original, seeing how Alexander (EA developer) has started this business a few years ago.

For him to come up with Forex Thor and selling it like a much hyped EA is well… different. Maybe he is trying to re-invest himself… or maybe marketing an EA like this makes better sales.

I don’t know… but usually with these sort of sales hype means more critical look at his EA.

And so… Son of Odin, what bring-eth of you-eth to the mortal realm-eth? To blow the forex world to kingdom come?!?!

Oh lord… How I tremble upon thy power…

It is because I tremble by thy power, I dare not venture further… as I am not worthy of your awesomeness.

And so I watch by the side to see how the power of Forex Thor performs smashing pips after pips.

It looks good no?

Well… at the point of this writing it seems that is a very huge problem with memory leak. A lot of user seems to be saying that Forex Thor is crashing their VPS.

At this point of writing, Thor Forex myfxbook stopped updating since 5th of December. That is about one month since the last update, probably that could be the reason.

This memory leak seems to be a serious problem and the developer just kind of disappear from myfxbook discussion thread after a lot of people or should I say his customers are complaining about this memory leak.

http://www.myfxbook.com/community/trading-systems/thor-forex/219954,1#?pt=2&p=12&o=219954

Initially in the discussion thread he said that, it stopped updating because he ‘accidentally’ switched it off. He ‘ACCIDENTALLY’ switched it off. Then when they started to complain about the memory leak, he said that he is not facing that problem.

But this memory leak issue has not only been discussed in myfxbook but also a lot of other forex forum. And now probably Alexander is behind the scene trying to solve this problem. Or probably busy trying to issue a refund to all the customer who are unhappy with the EA.

Now this guy… has actually made a bold guarantee statement on his sales page.

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Firstly you get your refund in 90 days should you not be happy with the product. Secondly if you are not making money with Forex Thor, he will give you 100 bucks!

Man… with this memory leak issue, I am sure everyone is not making money and will try to claim this $100 bucks!! I guess that could probably be the reason why he is so quiet. Either he is laying low trying to repair the problem or busy handing out refund + cash. The last I heard was that he was issuing a new patch.

Anyway, Forex Thor seems to be performing very well until 5 December 2011 (on demo that is), about a week after that people started noticing and complaining about this memory leak issue.

And of course… I just couldn’t help myself but comment on this…

Hahaha… Get it?? Leaki… As in Loki… Thor’s evil brother? As in Thor’s evil brother trying to bring Thor down.

Get it? Get it?

No? Seriously… no?

Ok… never mind… It was a cheap joke but I just couldn’t resist it.

Anyway… until Alexander solves Forex Thor’s problem on this ‘Leaki’ memory issue, I’ll probably wait till then to get my hands on his hammer.

Erm… probably that did not come out right. But I guess you know what I mean…

 

 

Starting 2012 On A Happy Note

Filed Under (EA System) by Casey on 05-01-2012

Happy Forex

Well, I am now in 2012. Is this the end for me? Or is this another good beginning?

I really want this to be a good beginning, and so I will start this on a Happy Note… By applying Happy Forex :)

Ok…  I am actually referring to this EA call Happy Forex.

How I found this EA was relatively interesting.

It was about a month ago, I started to think about what I wanted to do with my Alpari account. I know I have failed a lot of scalping EA on Alpari. Yes… Alpari is not exactly a fan of scalping EA, so my account was very messy.

And so… I scouted around for an EA that would prove to be good with Alpari, something that was not about scalping. And my browsing got me to this EA.

http://www.myfxbook.com/strategies/ea-happy-forex-v13/10168

I was like… wow… smooth curve. 11 12 years backtested. Martingale… Yipee!! However… after close inspection, I found out that it is not a martingale EA but a grid EA. One and the same thing. Draw down can be a bit(h!

So I dum-de-dum-dum again and see what this developer has to say with his other account results and notice that he has applied this on Alpari. So I though what the heck… let me put this to the test.

Furthermore, it was a 11 12 years backtesting result, must at least give it some consideration. It’s not easy to fine a martingale/grid EA with a 11 12 years backtesting result. I know… I have been trying these past few months…

So… la-di-da. I backtesting this EA and below are the result. I thought doing a 99% would be interesting. And it was… however because it was a grid EA, it took like almost a week to do this backtest. Gawd dang man!!

For the sake of my happiness… I proceeded. Here are the results.

2011 – 99% modeling quality

2010 – 99% modeling quality

2009 – 99% modeling quality

2008 – 99% modeling quality

99% backtesting seems to be very awesome.

You would probably have notice some of this huge camel humps. This is nothing more than the dreaded drawdowns. From the graph above, the drawdown was as such 95.37% (2008), 42.71% (2009) 10.24% (2010) and 2.97% (2011). By the looks of it, it seems that the drawdown seems to decrease in the coming years. Does that mean in 2012 the drawdown could be less than 1%?!

Ok… that is wishful thinking but hey… it’s 99% backtesting model. It should be good no? Or rather the methodology of Happy Forex seems to be sound.

I know… I know… they say this will blow up my account. But hey… with such backtesting result I must do justice to this EA.

For the sake of my happiness (or sadness) I have to take a dive. So… here goes my leap of faith (on the backtesting result that is).

This is my account with myfxbook which I just started to put on live yesterday. Let’s see how this performs

This is the owner’s account with myfxbook

By the way, the owner’s site is from Slovakia as his domain suggest http://HappyForex.sk

And it’s logo is relatively creative don’t you think?

Merry Christmas and A Happy New 2012

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 23-12-2011

It was interesting that while I was preparing this post to wish my visitors a good holiday season, I found that I have been getting hits base on the search term ‘Merry Christmas and Happy New Year’

I really do not know how my site about forex can make it to the top 10 list in google search. Maybe Santa knows I have been very nice… :)

Anyway, it gave me an opportunity again to look back and read what I had written about a year ago in 2011. On that post (http://bestforexea.com/2010/12/merry-christmas-happy-new-2011/) I mentioned that 2011 was another year of learning and another year of growth.

By gawd… I got what I wished for! 2011 was another year of learning for me and by the end of it… I gawd dang hope that I have grown from it.

Well… just wanted to take this opportunity to wish all my visitors Happy Holidays and have a great new year!

I guess the key here in forex trading is persistence. Continue moving forward is all that I can do. Moving forward with Lovely Megan again :)

Never say DIE!

That will be my motto for 2012 especially when speculation has it that 2012 is the year of Apocalypse. Bah!! Why fill oneself with DOOM and GLOOM? Better fill oneself with whiskey and vodka no?

Anyway… I’m closing up shop for the holiday season as usual. Winding down Lovely Megan to not take any position during the festive week, you know all about drawdown and $hit like that… Then I shall restart everything once more… from the beginning.

So Santa… I have been very nice this year. So this is what I wish for: Please bring peace to all mankind and please give Barrack Obama and Angela Merkel some wisdom to get us out from this economical mess that the whole world is in or will be in if they don’t do something about it. And after that… do fill my forex account with some nice looking figures… I could use a new car.

For my 2012 goal and objective: To start learning from my past mistake and grow my account further and be consistent over the year. Oh… and not let the cycle happen again. The cycle where I fu(k everything up during the 2nd half of the year.

So wishing you all a very wonderful Christmas and a champagne filled New Year… Be Good ye’all! If not stay safe and be careful…

 

Courtesy of FreeLogoPlanet.com

Forex EA 104 – Understanding The 2% Risk

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 21-12-2011

After understanding what leverage is, I think it’s time to I learn about… sorry. I RE learn about what this 2% risk is all about.

Both leverage and risk I believe are interconnected. The higher we leverage the more we risk. Taking from the example from my previous post (Understanding Leverage).

With 500:1 leverage I put in 200EUR to trade 1 lot and if I made 100EUR it means my return on my capital/deposit/collateral = 50%

With 100:1 leverage I put in 1000EUR to trade 1 lot and if I made 100EUR it means my return on my capital/deposit/collateral = 10%

With 500:1 leverage I put in 200EUR to trade 1 lot and if I lose 100EUR it means my lost on my capital/deposit/collateral = 50%

With 100:1 leverage I put in 1000EUR to trade 1 lot and if I lose 100EUR it means my lost on my capital/deposit/collateral = 10%

Now doesn’t it relates to risk? If the gain of $100 on on a 100:1 leverage is a 10% profit or reward , a lot of $100 on a 100:1 is a 10% lost or risk. So leverage and risk or reward is interelated.

But I think we need to hump on the risk part, since all traders say that managing your risk is your key to success in trading.

I have been doing some studying and it seems that how much I risk on my trade is actually up to me. And if we are going to equate risk to be equal to how much I leverage on each trade, then it will also mean how much I leverage on each trade is up to me. Plain and simple.

Now here is a new definition I learn: Real Leverage

Read the rest of this entry »

Forex 103 – 99% Backtest Modeling for Beginners

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 18-12-2011

During my recuperating month, I have been going back to basic. You know as they say “When all else fails, go back to the basics of it all”.

And I have been going back to basics. Learning everything all over again. And one of the things was to learn how to do is 99% backtest modeling.

I have been gawd dang lazy and have been procrastinating this particularly simple task. It is simple, but I found it a bit tedious or maybe overwhelming. Whatever the reason it may be it was just an excuse for me to not do it. Don’t know why? And don’t know what?

But… I finally got my ar$e to really do something about it. Better late then never as they say…

Now take a look at Brit’s page here on tick data, it’s just crazy with information. Crazy as in a whole loads of information. I have also bought myself into Rob Casey’s “Guide to Getting Rich with Forex Robot” which also explains about 99% backtesting in a more simple and visual way. Even with Rob’s video steps, I found it a bit of a challenge…

If you are not overwhelm with the information written on Brit’s page… then you are probably a veteran and knows most of what he is talking about. If you are overwhelm, you are not at fault. It’s just that we have not reach that stage just yet.

Rob Casey’s guide was must more simple and with video on how to do it step by step… I found it easier to understand. However, when I want to go back to a point where I was stuck… I have to play the video over again… From the start! And I have to wait for the buffering to reach that point before I can see where I did wrong. That was pretty annoying.

He also had a step by step guide… But sometimes without the visual, I do not know whether I was doing it right or wrong.

So… after learning and doing a few 99% backtest modeling on some EA. I got the hang of it. And I though it will be a great help to all newbies if I share with them my easy understanding of both these two sites about 99% backtesting.

Before I continue, I just want to say that this is what I believe to be the most simplest form a step by step. It’s just a do and follow the steps A, B, C, D, to get result E.  There are no additional information as to why and how and what. All this information has already been very well written in Brit’s page. Take you time to read, learn and understand more if you want.

But if you want to get down and dirty and start doing some 99% backtest modeling… Then continue on…

Here you go… 99% backtesting the straight forward ABC steps without the heavy information.

———————————————————— Read the rest of this entry »

Forex 102 – Understanding Leverage

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 16-12-2011

I have to admit, while I do understand what leverage is per say… One thing that I am still ignorant about is how leverage is going or can be used properly in Forex.

Especially for a guy who plays with Martingale strategy, leverage and margin are two important key… However, all I know is that I need high leverage and high margin in order for martingale to work but I never realize how it can work or will work towards my favor.

So in order for me to re-educate myself, I share with you what I leave, read and understand.

From Wikipedia Leverage
In finance, leverage (sometimes referred to as gearing in the United Kingdom) is a general term for any technique to multiply gains and losses.[1] Common ways to attain leverage are borrowing money, buying fixed assets and using derivatives.[2] Important examples are:

  • A public corporation may leverage its equity by borrowing money. The more it borrows, the less equity capital it needs, so any profits or losses are shared among a smaller base and are proportionately larger as a result.[3]
  • A business entity can leverage its revenue by buying fixed assets. This will increase the proportion of fixed, as opposed to variable, costs, meaning that a change in revenue will result in a larger change in operating income.[4][5]
  • Hedge funds often leverage their assets by using derivatives. A fund might get any gains or losses on $20 million worth of crude oil by posting $1 million of cash as margin.[6]

It goes on to say that there are two different definition of leverage investing and corporate financing. But I guess we will go on to investing as it is more applicable to me.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Best Forex VPS

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 09-12-2011

I am coming close to my third year with SWVPS and I though it would be nice to write about Forex VPS again. There are many articles out there with regards to the need for a Virtual Private Server for forex EA traders and one of the key questions is which is the best forex VPS around.

Why do you need VPS for your forex EA trading? The simple answer is that your MT4 needs to be 24 hours online and you do not want the internet connection to be interrupted by anything.

And on top of that our normal internet connection at home can be said to be unreliable unless you are living in South Korea.

Fast execution is another thing… but if you are not scalping than probably one just needs a reliable connection to ensure that the trade are being executed properly.

Anyway, I am about to renew my VPS subscription and I though after 3 years there should be another VPS provider out there who might be able to provide me with a cheaper and better alternative.

And so I scour the internet once more to find a good and relatively cheap VPS provider. Of course I am going to use my current subscription with SWVPS as my bench mark. On top of that, I am going to make some assumptions here. Other than the parameter I state below in the table, I assume that all other services and perks are equal and non vital to a forex traders requirement

In my honest opinion, there are what I look at when choosing a VPS provider.

Disk Storage: Now, hosting your EA and your MT4 broker does not require a lot of space. At most, one MT4 broker will only take 6 to 8 MB. So why do you need so much disk storage for?

Even if I were to put all my EA on the server it would only take up about 1G.

Unless you want to do backtesting on your VPS, then of course you need more storage space for data download. And if you want to do 99% backtesting on VPS, you need at least 2G per currency pair. But I won’t recommend doing backtesting on your VPS. I don’t want to slow down my VPS for any reason. After all, I want my VPS to be in peak performances when trading.

More disc space means you can also keep other stuff in there.

While disc space is not all that important, humans being humans, the more the better as they say…

Physical Memory(RAM): This is very important because and unless you want to put in say 10MT4 testing it back to back… either demo or live. The more RAM you have, the more MT4 you can host on one VPS.

Bandwidth: Nothing more than how much traffic moving in and out. From my observation, leaving one MT4 platform with 10 charts open, my bandwith is about 800MB if you have 10 MT4 running with 10 charts open it will only be 8GB.

Again, humans being humans… we just want more for less.

So at the end of the day, I let the figures speaks for themselves. And I am sticking to the one and only the best Forex VPS (in my books) in terms of PRICE and POWER…. SWVPS