Martingale Mania V ~ Currency Pair

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 25-08-2009

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Following the concept of I pondered upon in my Martingale Mania I, I set out to look for the best currency pair. Since Best Forex Sniper uses a cascading/grid order limit of about 30 pips between each grid level. I had to find a currency pair that is not so volatile… IE does not move 330 pips in one shot without retracting back 30 pips to take profit….

So I went about to look for these currency pairs which were not volatile and put it to the tests… How else do we test? Well… by backtesting it of course. I must say backtesting Martingale EA is pretty long and tedious. It practically took 12 hours just to back test one currency pair between Jan 2009 till Aug 2009!!

Man… I had to learn the long way… Not only did I busted 12 hours of my time testing one currency pair… I wasted another 6 hours because I put the wrong settings… Sighhh….. Oh by the way… these backtesting were done on on Best Sniper Forex EA… So the criteria set out by me and the 330 pips movement were base on the parameters from this EA…

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Enter the Dragon

Filed Under (EA System) by Casey on 30-06-2009

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DragonPipsYes… that is what I did with my FXOpen broker account. I went into the Dojo and tired to whip some pips ar$e with the Dragon. But… unfortunately, the outcome was not as exciting as the movie by Bruce Lee…

Well, two weeks ago, I stumble upon this statement on the forum. http://save2009.mt4live.com/ I was pretty impress by how he manage to turn his misfortune firstly via Enterra and then midway… changed it to DragonPips…

This guy confirmed that he was using his FXOpen account. So what else… like a monkey, I followed… :) And yes… I used it live. How can’t I not put this live? My FXOpen is a micro account. All I am earning are cents, surely the time spent on demo testing it on this broker would not justify the cents I could or could not be earning….

Ok… ok… for the sake of this blog. of my live account..  The least I could do is to backtest it. So now I shall produce my backtesting results… :)

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Thunder Thor

Filed Under (EA System) by Casey on 10-06-2009

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I previously said that I would write something about this graph below…

Thunder 4WD EUR GBP V1

(Click on image to view statement)

Well… I was busy trying to enterprise my blog a bit… So had to wait a few days before writing this up.

Anyway… as the title suggest. This EA is non other than the FREE EA… Thunder 4WD EUR GBP V1.

This was pretty awkward. I manage to backtest this EA from 2008 till End May 2009. But when I started to backtest this further back to 1999… I got this error…

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Euro Blitzkrieg

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 06-06-2009

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I was trying to backtest other EA in my ‘To Be Tested’ folder… and as I was backtesting and backtesting and backtesting…

An idea popped up on my head…. But… before I dived into what this idea is about… I notice that during all these backtesting… a lot of the graph were see-saw shaped.

While the profit factor is interesting within the initial time period of 2008 till end May 2009… the see saw graph proves discouraging…

Maybe because I am brainwashed by the so called ‘smooth’ equity curve… like this one below

Equity Curve
(Will talk more about this in another post)

Or recently… like this linear graph below…

Linear Line
hehe.. this guy made no promise to me that he will share his secrets…

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In Support Of the Innocent

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 05-06-2009

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It has come to a point where I start to continue to think what is right and wrong. When I wrote my post on Scam, Sham and All that is Bullshit! I realize that apart from my bottom line, one must make a stand when it comes to this industry.

Yes, I have been guilty of downloading some EAs for free, cracking the codes and freely using it like there is no tomorrow… while I also have been a good boy and buying a few EA myself. Most of them were $hite…

So… I would like to use this site as a vehicle to promote those that are innocent… Well… more like promote those that I currently used LIVE on my account.

This is in support of those that are ‘innocent’ and has a good nature of probably improving their proprietary EA that these EA authors developed.

On one hand, I know a lot of people do not want to spend money not knowing if a product is good or not. That’s the reason why it can be easily gotten for free over the internet, if one were to search hard for it.

On the other hand, this leaves the real proprietary EA author in a dilemma. It might or might not hinder them from developing or improving their EA.

The argument is that, if it’s so profitable, then why don’t they use the EA themselves? The reply would be, if they don’t share it OR sell it, how would people like you and me, who does not or might not have the time to learn MQL language and build our own EA or even get a chance to participate in the worlds biggest market…

Because of the need to bring innovation out to the market, scammers and bullshiters prey on people/end users like us… to make a quick buck. In this industry where scammers and bullshiters exist… one dares not enter or buy an EA with their own money…. Some would, but most won’t…

So the internet naturally regulate themselves. Review and EA Test sites pop up like mushroom so that consumers don’t get scammed. Sure they will test on their own platform and give them their reviews. But with so many variables like which broker they use and which settings they have changed all the more cause their reviews to probably be bias.

So what could beat all this? To ensure that one is getting the right product that works for oneself. We need to test it OURSELVES…

When we test it we can be sure that it is good and profitable. Only then we purchase it.

That is the reason why some do offer a demo EA. But with the decompiler software… that makes it tricky. So no more demo version.

One might suggest to open a demo account and past the information to the EA seller to prove it to you. But that takes a lot of the sellers resources to prove it… Like in Enterra’s case, they probably used their own desktop or VPS, set up an MT4 platform and then test it out over a period of time. They only gave me 2 weeks. And that does not guarantee a sales.

Is that enough? No… it’s not… 2 weeks shows you $hit. If my Alfafah forex experiences was ever an example, two weeks without even backtesting it might prove deadly.

So how?

Again…. we need to backtest it, demo test it and then probably live test it OURSELVES. If it’s good, then buy the original.

Now… I am going to be a partly hypocritical here, of all the three EA, only FAPTurbo was legally bought by me. Cyborg EA was cracked and Xtreme was forwarded to me…

Yes… money is a bit tight for me. And as you can see… my bottom line has been messed up countless times. That’s the price I pay…

Having said that… Whatever my reason could be, I am going to make it up to these sellers and also to the potential buyers… You can download it from my library… back test it, forward test it and put it live… And if you are profitable, then I encourage you to buy the original…

For the EA that I used, I will give back what they call a rebate… or I will package it in such a way that you get maximum value for your purchase. I will need to figure out how to package it first. But it will be done…

My principles here needs to be fine tuned. So that everyone can be profitable…

Optimus Prime! We are Go!

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 05-06-2009

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Man… backtesting is exciting… Ok… at times…

It took me about 1 full day to backtest things over and over again just to look for the right kind of EA to go demo…

Now this one I got to admit… Forex Transformer initially had the same cynicism as all the other EA. Some of it asked me to do a scam feature… but again… I don’t think I am into that kind of business only if it serves my purpose. Sorry… but I have to prioritize my bottom line here man…

Forex Transformer Before I dive into backtesting… let’s take a look at who Optimus Prime is…

From a quick whois search, it’s Paul Liburd from Manchester UK… This is a good sign.. he is legit… Don’t need to hide who you are if you are the proud owner… ain’t it…

Forex Transformer

And further googling brought me to a site which indicates that Paul Liburd is also the author of Forex Raid . I do not think this ebook system kicked off because I never heard of Forex Raid…. Probably because I never really dived into manual trading…

So anyhuu…. he is legit… digging shows that. I believe he is using his system from Forex Raid and TRANSFORM it into an EA….

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Blast Me to Heaven Please

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 05-06-2009

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Wow… this is a great EA man… It’s profit factor was like 10 and above….

What am I talking about? Well it’s EuroBlaster of course… This was the EA I backtested next after PipMaker and Cyborg but wanted to post this later… why?? Because I wanted to reconfirm more results…

I tested and try to optimize this sucker… So here goes the results

Click the image to bring up the statement

EuroBlaster

Profit factor = 10.25

EuroBlaster
Profit factor = 10.56

EuroBlaster
Profit factor = 10.78

So… as usual I was excited… I could probably do something with this… I went back to extend the backtesting time line till 1999

EuroBlaster
Profit factor = 1.14


This was my expression when the results popped out… geess… it is something that does not withstand the test of time. What makes it so sure that it will withstand the future?

Still with a profit factor of 1.14 seems to be an interesting system….

Stupid Alfafa…

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 05-06-2009

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After sorting out backtesting PipMaker and also EuroBlaster… (which I put it in another post) I manage to test the one EA that was the source of my stupidity, laziness, carelessness and also my downturn on my account balance.

I backtested Alfaforex… and gees… not as impressive as I would have imagine. But it was funny… I did two same backtest and the result is different. Funny… Have a look
AlfaForex
Backtest one

AlfaForex
Backtest two

Now click on the image to draw up the statement… you will see that the parameter is the same but the profit factor are different…

So what does this say… firstly… backtesting does not seem to be consistent or my data are fu(ked up. Anyway… backtesting result model are 90% accurate as they stated it clearly or maybe even worst.

The curve looks good… it’s still profitable that I can say for sure… but when you put it live… and if you see the downtrend on your account… what do you do?? Of course you would stop it… But that is another dilemma isn’t it? The EA is profitable so what we need is persistence… rather than jumping the guns and look for the next holy grail no?

I did not want to stretch it over time… because I just don’t want to indulge in my own mistakes. While the profit factor is above one… it does not mean that the future results will yield that sort of results.

It has proven that on my real account… while it looked pretty on my demo.

I wanted to test EURCAD but there is something wrong with my data… could not get a single trade for EURCAD… Oh well… since I am going to chuck this one in the archive folder… Might as well give EURCAD a miss….

But I got a strong feeling that I might or will revisit this EA…. Why? Because of the fact that it is profitable… secondly, if I were to use my 2% rule… I should be able to come out tops… I think….

Martingale Strategy

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 01-06-2009

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This first order of business when I started to do backtesting was to backtest Cyborg EA. On top of that, I was also backtesting another EA PipMaker V3.15… (Open source edited to include Martingale Strategy)

Now PipMaker was a tough sucker to backtest. Why? Because it took like 2 hours just to backtest one currency pair… And it was not from 1999 till todate. It was from 01/01/2008 till 29/05/2009… My gawd! And I was backtesting it on both broker… Interbank and Alpari. Two of what I would say my main account.

Anyway… it was pretty interesting. Before I dive into the actual backtesting results. I wanted to express my view on Martingale Strategy.

Martingale system has been widely used in casino but I have never come across it until a few months back when I was looking into Forex Funnel. Did not dive into it until I got Cyborg EA. And did not backtest it until well…. last week when my penpal forwarded to me PipMaker V3.15

Martingale stategy is a really scary strategy. In casino using Martingale startegy, you double up your bet just to win 1 credit… This strategy was mostly used in Roulette playing black/red. You double up your bet when you lose your initial bet and continue to double up until you hit a win.

And you only win 1 credit… Here is a clearer explaination on wikipedia… Martingale Betting System .

And here is my personal experiences with casino roulette systems … (What can I say… I just love gambling) :)

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Backtest Dilemma No More – Final Cut

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 28-05-2009

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What can I say… some encouragement always goes a long way.

Twiddling Thumb So there I was twiddling my thumbs thinking what I should do, the itching feeling that this historical data download BS is really getting to me.

‘I will not relent!!’ I said to myself. And getting some encouragement from people (bless their heart) can really gets ones mojo going. I start to see things that I would have easily dismissed as ‘not the solution’.

I went back to my Alpari platform again and going things step by step and observe if I had missed anything…

I started from scratch…. uninstalled Alpari MT4… deleted all the folders and then reinstalled MT4 again. Once the platform launched, I do the usual; set  Tools > Options > Charts > Max bar in history to 999999999999. Then I proceed to history center and I double click on the currency pair to load the initial data.

And this is what I noticed

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