Simply Shocking

Filed Under (EA System) by Casey on 20-07-2009

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shocker01I had previously did some testing on this EA, but never got around to write something about it…

Well I guess today would be a good day to do just that. Forex Shocker has already been around for sometime. Some people say it is a good EA some people say it is not.

Looking at it’s website it is not a shocker (pun intended) that it is a scalping EA…

Here we go again… another scalper. I thought to myself… Ok…. this could be fun. Why? Because if it does not work in the original mode… then I could probably reverse it…. :)

Either way now… I have options.

Anyway, let’s get back to the issue at hand. Let’s have a look at the backtesting results and see how well this EA will shock the forex world…

I backtested EURUSD and GBPUSD first because the developer uses it on FXOpen… and thus I backtested both these currency pair on my FXOpen account.

EURUSD Forex Shocker

GBPUSD  Forex Shocker

I was pretty curious as to why the developer only tested these two currency pair on FXOpen and the rest of the currency pair USDCHF, EURGBP, EURCHF, and USDCAD on TawadulFX. Is he/she hiding something?

Well, the only way to find out is of course backtesting it on FXOpen…

USDCHF Forex Shocker

EURGBP Forex Shocker

EURCHF Forex Shocker

USDCAD Forex Shocker

Hmmm…. Not at all interesting except for EURGBP (No shocker there) . The result looks mixed and the profit factor is not really consistent with what was displayed on their site. That is probably because the site backtested this EA from 1999.

So in my quest to see if my backtesting results were correct, I again backtest this results all the way from 1999. And here are the results (Warning: backtesting statements are relatively big over 5mb)

EURUSDForex Shocker

GBPUSDForex Shocker

USDCHFForex Shocker

EURGBPForex Shocker

EURCHFForex Shocker

USDCADForex Shocker

Wow…. Ain’t it a shocker!! Not bad huh… the big picture shows very interesting results. (Here comes the but…)

But……. if recent experiences has ever proven to me is that testing scalping back to 1999 is no longer ever valid. Yeah… sure the assumption is that it would has proven to have tested previous and all known market conditions. Practically speaking, when we forward testing most of the time, the results is not ever the same case.

“Past performance does not constitute to the same future performances”. That is the disclaimer on every site. And that disclaimer alone will forever cast a doubt in any EA, or forex trading system everywhere on earth.

Plus, all backtesting results are only more or less 90% accurate. So we should and can only take all these results with an itsy-betsy pinch of salt.

It is again not a shocker (again with pun intended) that most scalping EA if not all does not seem to work well at present and probably in the near future. This EA developer has proven that backtesting wise, this EA is sound. But where is his Live statement results? Well, I guess those who bought it or acquired it have to be the guinea pig (like me) and test it out…

So does that mean that I am going to put money on this EA? Hell yeah! I have already put my money in most of the EA that I have tested… so why not this one? However… once again experiences would probably suggest that I only put my money on the near term backtesting results.

The top six backtesting results since 2009 would be the a more or less of an accurate reading of the way the EA would probably perform in the near future. So I will only be trying this live on EURUSD, GBPUSD and EURGBP.

Now a bit about this EA, this EA incorporated a few parameters which one can use and adjust to suit a short term trading or rather to optimize the settings to gain better profits in the short term. This optimization exercise is used base on the assumption that the market will move according to current situation. But of course some people would say it is bullshit… but then again, forex market is all about probability and statistics to predict the current trend…

While the big picture shows interesting results? The smaller picture shows mix results…

So does optimization actually helped? Well I don’t really know… taking S26 from Forex Barometer as an example, it clearly does not seem so.

My live trading account does not clearly reflect what they have previously stated. Then again… it could probably be only me. But at least it is another approach into discovering or predicting the future….

Any how… like any scalping EA, it is meant for short term. I am not sure how the trailing or stop loss is adjusted to reduce the amount of drawdown, but if the stop loss were ever to be hit… it surely is going to be a painful hit.

Time and time again I have seen it happening… One stop loss hit… and I am down and depress. Anyway… I will leave this for another posts.

For now… like any gambler… I will put this EA to the live test together with Bruce Lee (DragonPips) on FXOpen. These results above is too interesting for me not to do  just that…

shocker02Another thing to note is that this EA is sold under PLIMUS.com. Again not a shocker… Plimus.com is not exactly very kind to refund complains.

Fortune telling a bit here but I believe a lot of new EA will be going to go with plimus.com for the simple reason that it will not honor any refund if and provided if the website seller does not state that they are giving a guarantee return.

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