Transformer got Decepti-CONned?

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 14-06-2009

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Is this true?! Optimus Prime got Decepti-CONED?

Well… As I was testing and trying out all the EA on my operation bliztkrieg which seems to be going up in smokes… I found out that Transformer is actually another free EA.

When Onur asked me to investigate this EA, I saw the source code and though it looked familiar… but I could not put my nose on it. I search almost all the source codes on my library but could not find any similarity…

Then when Zeno from 4xproject.com emailed to me with regards to Transformer being the same as Conqueror and Vampire (New EA) It hit me!

I went to check Forex Conqueror’s source code and there you have it…

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Operation Blitzkrieg

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 10-06-2009

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This is day 2 of operation Euro Blitzkrieg. I have set up all the EA on the demo ground to see how well it will perform on the training field.

Suffice to say… it was pretty tedious to set it up in an organize manner. It wasn’t easy but it has got to be done. To win the war… these soldiers must be ready. If they are not… then screw it.

As day 2 comes to an end… I found out more and more interesting things about these EA. Some were not what they are cut out for. But we shall see.

I have set up two different training ground. One demo platform is put in place to let them run freely without any control. Where else the other demo platform, the EA are controlled.

The controlled idea came about with I was reading and testing Firebird Driven. The reason for control is that because most of the EA has a very big stop loss level. The problem is that with big stop losses, all you need is one stop to whip your profits down to size.

And it would take a whole load of pips to get back on track. This is undesireable. And I believe what causes the see saw in the backtesting graph.

But this needs to be proven.. which EA needs to be control and which doesn’t. It is for that reason, I have set up two different demo to experiment.

Thunder Thor

Filed Under (EA System) by Casey on 10-06-2009

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I previously said that I would write something about this graph below…

Thunder 4WD EUR GBP V1

(Click on image to view statement)

Well… I was busy trying to enterprise my blog a bit… So had to wait a few days before writing this up.

Anyway… as the title suggest. This EA is non other than the FREE EA… Thunder 4WD EUR GBP V1.

This was pretty awkward. I manage to backtest this EA from 2008 till End May 2009. But when I started to backtest this further back to 1999… I got this error…

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Euro Blitzkrieg

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 06-06-2009

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I was trying to backtest other EA in my ‘To Be Tested’ folder… and as I was backtesting and backtesting and backtesting…

An idea popped up on my head…. But… before I dived into what this idea is about… I notice that during all these backtesting… a lot of the graph were see-saw shaped.

While the profit factor is interesting within the initial time period of 2008 till end May 2009… the see saw graph proves discouraging…

Maybe because I am brainwashed by the so called ‘smooth’ equity curve… like this one below

Equity Curve
(Will talk more about this in another post)

Or recently… like this linear graph below…

Linear Line
hehe.. this guy made no promise to me that he will share his secrets…

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In Support Of the Innocent

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 05-06-2009

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It has come to a point where I start to continue to think what is right and wrong. When I wrote my post on Scam, Sham and All that is Bullshit! I realize that apart from my bottom line, one must make a stand when it comes to this industry.

Yes, I have been guilty of downloading some EAs for free, cracking the codes and freely using it like there is no tomorrow… while I also have been a good boy and buying a few EA myself. Most of them were $hite…

So… I would like to use this site as a vehicle to promote those that are innocent… Well… more like promote those that I currently used LIVE on my account.

This is in support of those that are ‘innocent’ and has a good nature of probably improving their proprietary EA that these EA authors developed.

On one hand, I know a lot of people do not want to spend money not knowing if a product is good or not. That’s the reason why it can be easily gotten for free over the internet, if one were to search hard for it.

On the other hand, this leaves the real proprietary EA author in a dilemma. It might or might not hinder them from developing or improving their EA.

The argument is that, if it’s so profitable, then why don’t they use the EA themselves? The reply would be, if they don’t share it OR sell it, how would people like you and me, who does not or might not have the time to learn MQL language and build our own EA or even get a chance to participate in the worlds biggest market…

Because of the need to bring innovation out to the market, scammers and bullshiters prey on people/end users like us… to make a quick buck. In this industry where scammers and bullshiters exist… one dares not enter or buy an EA with their own money…. Some would, but most won’t…

So the internet naturally regulate themselves. Review and EA Test sites pop up like mushroom so that consumers don’t get scammed. Sure they will test on their own platform and give them their reviews. But with so many variables like which broker they use and which settings they have changed all the more cause their reviews to probably be bias.

So what could beat all this? To ensure that one is getting the right product that works for oneself. We need to test it OURSELVES…

When we test it we can be sure that it is good and profitable. Only then we purchase it.

That is the reason why some do offer a demo EA. But with the decompiler software… that makes it tricky. So no more demo version.

One might suggest to open a demo account and past the information to the EA seller to prove it to you. But that takes a lot of the sellers resources to prove it… Like in Enterra’s case, they probably used their own desktop or VPS, set up an MT4 platform and then test it out over a period of time. They only gave me 2 weeks. And that does not guarantee a sales.

Is that enough? No… it’s not… 2 weeks shows you $hit. If my Alfafah forex experiences was ever an example, two weeks without even backtesting it might prove deadly.

So how?

Again…. we need to backtest it, demo test it and then probably live test it OURSELVES. If it’s good, then buy the original.

Now… I am going to be a partly hypocritical here, of all the three EA, only FAPTurbo was legally bought by me. Cyborg EA was cracked and Xtreme was forwarded to me…

Yes… money is a bit tight for me. And as you can see… my bottom line has been messed up countless times. That’s the price I pay…

Having said that… Whatever my reason could be, I am going to make it up to these sellers and also to the potential buyers… You can download it from my library… back test it, forward test it and put it live… And if you are profitable, then I encourage you to buy the original…

For the EA that I used, I will give back what they call a rebate… or I will package it in such a way that you get maximum value for your purchase. I will need to figure out how to package it first. But it will be done…

My principles here needs to be fine tuned. So that everyone can be profitable…

Optimus Prime! We are Go!

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 05-06-2009

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Man… backtesting is exciting… Ok… at times…

It took me about 1 full day to backtest things over and over again just to look for the right kind of EA to go demo…

Now this one I got to admit… Forex Transformer initially had the same cynicism as all the other EA. Some of it asked me to do a scam feature… but again… I don’t think I am into that kind of business only if it serves my purpose. Sorry… but I have to prioritize my bottom line here man…

Forex Transformer Before I dive into backtesting… let’s take a look at who Optimus Prime is…

From a quick whois search, it’s Paul Liburd from Manchester UK… This is a good sign.. he is legit… Don’t need to hide who you are if you are the proud owner… ain’t it…

Forex Transformer

And further googling brought me to a site which indicates that Paul Liburd is also the author of Forex Raid . I do not think this ebook system kicked off because I never heard of Forex Raid…. Probably because I never really dived into manual trading…

So anyhuu…. he is legit… digging shows that. I believe he is using his system from Forex Raid and TRANSFORM it into an EA….

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Blast Me to Heaven Please

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 05-06-2009

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Wow… this is a great EA man… It’s profit factor was like 10 and above….

What am I talking about? Well it’s EuroBlaster of course… This was the EA I backtested next after PipMaker and Cyborg but wanted to post this later… why?? Because I wanted to reconfirm more results…

I tested and try to optimize this sucker… So here goes the results

Click the image to bring up the statement

EuroBlaster

Profit factor = 10.25

EuroBlaster
Profit factor = 10.56

EuroBlaster
Profit factor = 10.78

So… as usual I was excited… I could probably do something with this… I went back to extend the backtesting time line till 1999

EuroBlaster
Profit factor = 1.14


This was my expression when the results popped out… geess… it is something that does not withstand the test of time. What makes it so sure that it will withstand the future?

Still with a profit factor of 1.14 seems to be an interesting system….

Stupid Alfafa…

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 05-06-2009

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After sorting out backtesting PipMaker and also EuroBlaster… (which I put it in another post) I manage to test the one EA that was the source of my stupidity, laziness, carelessness and also my downturn on my account balance.

I backtested Alfaforex… and gees… not as impressive as I would have imagine. But it was funny… I did two same backtest and the result is different. Funny… Have a look
AlfaForex
Backtest one

AlfaForex
Backtest two

Now click on the image to draw up the statement… you will see that the parameter is the same but the profit factor are different…

So what does this say… firstly… backtesting does not seem to be consistent or my data are fu(ked up. Anyway… backtesting result model are 90% accurate as they stated it clearly or maybe even worst.

The curve looks good… it’s still profitable that I can say for sure… but when you put it live… and if you see the downtrend on your account… what do you do?? Of course you would stop it… But that is another dilemma isn’t it? The EA is profitable so what we need is persistence… rather than jumping the guns and look for the next holy grail no?

I did not want to stretch it over time… because I just don’t want to indulge in my own mistakes. While the profit factor is above one… it does not mean that the future results will yield that sort of results.

It has proven that on my real account… while it looked pretty on my demo.

I wanted to test EURCAD but there is something wrong with my data… could not get a single trade for EURCAD… Oh well… since I am going to chuck this one in the archive folder… Might as well give EURCAD a miss….

But I got a strong feeling that I might or will revisit this EA…. Why? Because of the fact that it is profitable… secondly, if I were to use my 2% rule… I should be able to come out tops… I think….

Performance as of End May 09

Filed Under (Performance) by Casey on 04-06-2009

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I was really procrastinating doing this update. I am so ashamed and do not want to accept the fact that May 09 was not as profitable as I wanted it to be.

Plainly… it was again due to stupidity. Sighh…. oh well… it needs to be done so that I can review previous month and correct it again this month.

Here is my result for end May 09
Performance End May 09

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Scam, Sham and All that is Bullshit!

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 04-06-2009

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Thought I would take a break from backtesting and write a piece on this. This morning I have been getting a lot of email alert about Forex Derivative EA. How it is a scam and what not?

Firstly, thank you very much to everyone who wrote in to me alerting me on this. While I don’t think I am in the business of uncovering scam (it happened by accident) I do feel that it is something that comes with this business of Forex EA or any other online or internet business for that matter.

Now I am not able to verify that it is a scam… but as the forum suggests

http://www.tradingsystemforex.com/commercial-expert-advisors/1530-forex-derivative-2.html

Forex Derivative This derivative EA uses¬† a code to manipulate backtesting results to curve fit it perfectly. While forward testing might not yield the same results… It never would anyway… but the point is…¬† It is deceiving and thus makes it unethical.

One of the reason I suspect, the author uses this code is to run away from the 56 days guarantee. Once the 56 days guarantee is over, the author keeps the money. And you get jack shit… You see, some will back test it… and if the backtesting result is good, they will forward test it… and forward test it take time. If one is not vigilant enough… boom… you will miss the guarantee dateline.

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