Backtest Dilemma No More – Final Cut

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 28-05-2009

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What can I say… some encouragement always goes a long way.

Twiddling Thumb So there I was twiddling my thumbs thinking what I should do, the itching feeling that this historical data download BS is really getting to me.

‘I will not relent!!’ I said to myself. And getting some encouragement from people (bless their heart) can really gets ones mojo going. I start to see things that I would have easily dismissed as ‘not the solution’.

I went back to my Alpari platform again and going things step by step and observe if I had missed anything…

I started from scratch…. uninstalled Alpari MT4… deleted all the folders and then reinstalled MT4 again. Once the platform launched, I do the usual; set  Tools > Options > Charts > Max bar in history to 999999999999. Then I proceed to history center and I double click on the currency pair to load the initial data.

And this is what I noticed

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Backtest Dilemma Part Deux

Filed Under (EA System) by Casey on 27-05-2009

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I got a shelling from one of my penpals yesterday… well not one but two of them.

One called me stupid while the other called me lazy…. Good thing about communicating via messenger is I could easily change the subject…. :)

I have to admit but they were spot on, it was wrong of me to not do any backtesting, I shouldn’t have run away from that subject with them. Because it was kind of true…. I was stupid to allow other people to dictate my opinion about an EA or even more stupid enough to think that doing demo test for 1 to 2 weeks was enough and lazy because I got into a few problems with historical data and loads of EA to tests.

Few weeks ago… I did do backtesting… but I stopped… well because I had a lot of things to do, and a lot of EA to test. It’s really tedious and I have to wait for a long time before I put the EA live but it needs to be done. Those are excuses of a stupid lazy bugger…

If I want to succeed in forex whether manual or automatic… I need to be smarter, work harder and most importantly be patient. I have none of them what so ever…. No wonder I failed miserably in manual trading… will this be the same for automatic trading?

I hope not… gawd damnit!! So now I have to get myself back on track…

I need to backtest first. Period.

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Automatic Trading VS Manual Trading

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 25-05-2009

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My thoughts continue to drive towards automatic trading and manual trading.

The debate goes in such a way that manual trading will ultimately rule over automatic trading. A lot of the community believes that manual trading is the way to profit and not automatic trading.

Straining my brains to understand why? I believe the answer is this simple, the market is a one big dynamic organism. It changes, rules and variables and whatever not… changes. If you believe in past, present and future, cause and effect philosophy… then you will understand why forex or people who sells product or software on ways to make money put a disclaimer on their websites.

‘The past makes the present and the present makes the future’

So past performances earnings does not necessarily mean the same earnings in the future. That is what they are saying in their disclaimer.

Coming back… Manual traders have an upper hand. Because they are involve in the market directly, they can adapt quickly when the market changes. Robots are dumb programs that follows a set of guidelines… in IT words… a set of programing.

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My Thoughts on Forex EA

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 24-05-2009

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For the past few days my brain wave was going on overdrive. My thoughts was going on and on about my approach on automatic trading. So much so that I eat thinking about forex, I bathe thinking about forex, I sleep thinking about forex. Hell! Even my wet dreams was about forex!

Every moment I was trying to get my thoughts together and trying to understand all these talk about principle, manual trading, automatic trading, what is possible and what is not, are they the same, should it be treated the same, what needs to be done, what approach should i take and most of it all….. will I be able to be successful in the forex market with with forex robot trading or automatic trading.

While I still haven’t got the gist of it… I will take my thoughts one step at a time.

Firstly, what is forex ea to me? Why should I use forex EA and not manually trade?

I mentioned before it is time. Forex EA will allow me time. Secondly I absolutely got no patient to sit in front of the monitor all day to scan for opportunity. Juggling 24 hours between work, family and friends, means one thing has to be sacrificed in order to fit forex manual trading into my life.

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It’s a Matter of Principle

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 21-05-2009

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Over the months, since I started this blog. I have been in contact with a lot of people and some of them has in way become penpals. It is nice to communicate with other people of the same interest and along the way learn from one another.

Mostly I do the learning from them…. :) That’s because surprisingly, most of my penpals are veterans in forex trading and they trade big. Some of them are full time traders. Some of them are part time and small traders like me.

But I recently (as in this week) started to communicate with them direct via messenger. Don’t know but somehow or rather most of them uses skype and I don’t really use skype, I mostly use MSN and Yahoo Messenger… While I do have a skype account, but have not touched it for ages.

So because I wanted to start communicating directly with them rather than back and forth via email. I reinstalled my skype and started adding contacts.

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AlfaForex

Filed Under (EA System, Journal, Performance) by Casey on 20-05-2009

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It’s time to post something about this EA. I have not only demo tested this EA but have also put it live. So it’s worth to write something about it.

Gawd dang!! This is one good EA!!

I think I shall let these images do the talking… and me adding some comments here and there…

Now this image is a demo test on Alpari. I initially tested USDCAD and BLOODY HELL!!! Don’t you think this should go live?!? Well, my thoughts exactly… this went live of course..

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How to Get Lost

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 20-05-2009

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Do you want to know how to get lost? Well…. I’ll tell you how.

Visit forums on the internet…

That was what happened to me yesterday. I was browsing forums after forums after forums reading thread after thread after thread. Until I knew it… I already lose 2 hours. Man did I get lost there. So many things in forums, some are good read and some are well… plainly put it crap. Some topic goes miles and miles long and at the end of the day…. the topic goes sideways. That is how you kill a topic thread.

Anyway… one very interesting forum site which I lose myself in was ArabicTrader.com . A guy asked me visit it so I did. While I do not read arabic, technology or rather google made it possible…. :)

That site has a very great bunch of good guys. From the translation, it is all about ‘Peace be with you’ in all sense of brotherhood kind of way. I mean they are Muslim and some extremist portray them to be bane to humankind. These sort of Muslim shows great love. I tell you…. you can actually spend hours there just loving the way they greet each other.

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Rising Profits

Filed Under (EA System, Performance) by Casey on 19-05-2009

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This deserve some attention… Forex Rising.

I have been demoing Forex Rising for quite a while now…. Ok it was just two weeks. The concept of forex rising still took to me, and thought I would try it on other pair. Everyone knows that EURGBP are very common. So common that spread are usually widen during asian hour. Have you ever notice FAPTurbo is getting very few trades on EURGBP?

Anyhuuu…. Because the concept of Forex Rising was so interesting.. I took it a step further to test it on two very or use to be popular currency pair. EURUSD and GBPUSD. Change the settings a bit… and what do you know.. I believe I found the perfect harmony.

This test was done, between 30 April 2009 to 19 May 2009 @ 0.1 lots. Apparently it only works well on my FXDD demo account. Tested on IBFX and it was shit! Going to retest this on Alpari and FXOpen, when I have enough computer resources to do so.

This test has made me $132.16. Sighh… if only it was real money.

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A Deal Strucked

Filed Under (Journal) by Casey on 19-05-2009

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Call it coincidences or whatever it maybe. Over the past few days has been pretty interesting. EA Boss, FAPTurbo and FPA. I must admit it was pretty interesting.

But my focus is still the bottom line in my live account . Wanted to post this but I was busy trying to get my demo running and my live account ready for this week. Added one or two new EA on my account… Now it is rock and roll time!!!

Anyway…. back to my main story. FAPTurbo contacted me a few days ago… We exchange an email or two…. And we agreed on somethings.

While I still doubt as to who are the guys behind FAPTurbo, I again will state that I do not doubt the product. I am currently using it and still using it. While it is not perfect these past month… I believe it would continue to make money. As long as I keep to the 2% rule, I should be alright.

Anyway, I propose a thing or two with them and they agreed. I in turn have to take down the open source code of FAPTurbo from my site.

I also told them the truth about me knowing how to crack their ID KEY. They did not bother. I would take that as they are alright with it. As long as I don’t distribute this ID KEY keygen.

So the deal was strucked between us… Funny huh how this goes… but who cares….

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FAPTurbo vs REMExpert Part 2

Filed Under (EA System, Journal) by Casey on 16-05-2009

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Ok… enough of blah blah… and getting back to work.

Previously I wrote a post FAPTurbo vs REMExpert and I compared how both these performed in comparison with each other. I also did mentioned that I would want to continue the testing for a few more weeks.

As of today… I think this will be the end of this comparison. I need to free up more resources to test new EA.

Previously my conclusion was ‘REMExpert manage to pull in 253.4 pips with 36 trades taken while FAPTurbo manage to pull in 156.3pips with 27 trades taken.’ between 16 April 2009 to 29 April 2009.

So now the testing continues from 4 May 2009 to 15 May 2009, ok ten days of trade. But results seem to have been tipped.  In that period, FAPTurbo manage to pull in 208.7pips with 40 trades and REMExpert pull in 130.1 pips with 30 trade.

So in total from (16 April 2009 – 29 April 2009; 4 May 2009 – 15 May 2009)

FAPTurbo got 365.0 pips over 67 trades
REMExpert got  383.5 pips over 66 trades

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